The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecast has given the country a reason to rejoice with 106 +/- 4 per cent of long range forecasting. However, according to a forecast from a senior meteorologist, the western Maharashtra region is not going to be too lucky, with only 98 per cent rains predicted.
“While western Maharashtra is going to get 97.13 per cent rain, which is below normal, parts like Vidarbha and Marathwada will see abovenormal rain this year. The Konkan area, too, is going to get around 98 per cent rain,” informed Dr Ramchandra Sable, former department head of agriculture meteorology at IMD. According to his estimates, Maharashtra will be getting 102 per cent of rain overall.
While the IMD gives a forecast for the country, it does not give a region-wise prediction. “We give a country-wide long range forecast, which is 106 per cent for this year. We have not made any region-wise forecast yet,” said an IMD official.
Sable had developed models to predict sub-regional rains back in 2003, while he was still working with IMD. “The predictions have been 88 to 90 per cent accurate. The developed model takes into consideration parameters such as maximum temperature, relative humidity in the morning and afternoon, wind speed and hours of bright sunshine, etc. The data is for the months of March, April and May. Such predictions help farmers, since it is the region-specific data which matters, considering that cropping patterns differ according to area,” Sable said.
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